You know this, but do you feel it?

I've been looking at global economic events for work and have this puzzle that I can't solve. First we know that the fallout of the US financial crisis is affecting the real economy not only in the US, but around the world. But the impact hasn't shown up in consumer spending, which is about 70% of the US GDP. This is in light of record oil prices, which is mirrored in many other commodities (for many reasons). So why hasn't the US consumer taken a bearish attitude and started saving for a rainy day, if the thunder claps are all around?

It's been obvious that the boom in consumer spending from 2002-2007 is largely due to credit expansion (lower rates, mortgage-backed debt refinancing, etc) since real incomes and employment has not improved significantly over that period. But now that the refinance "credit card" is running out and lending standards are up (while consumer demand is down), what is financing continued consumer activity? And will this financing dry up soon, impacting GDP growth?

My bet is that GDP forecasts for 2008 are still optimistic at around 1-2% growth. I think the year will be at the lower end of this.

PS: looking at the data for a lot of indicators, almost all seem to fit the pattern in every other recession (save for the one in 2001). If it quacks like a recession....