Monday, December 1, 2008

Recession

As expected, the US recession started in December 2007.

The NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee has announced that the US economic cycle has entered into what they define as a recession. I had posted about this before ("You know this but do you feel it?"). The data from end-2007 all pointed to a recession.

Please now that the "traditional definition" is no such thing. 2 consecutive quarters of decline are not the definition of a recession, at least not in the US economy. The NBER defines it as:
“a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in production, employment, real income, and other indicators”

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